The moment Zack Greinke broke his collarbone in the collision with a really angry Carlos Quentin very last month, the word was of the fact that Los Angeles Dodgers will have to make do without their $147 mil right-hander for eight many days.
So much for this. Greinke's going to be back considerably sooner, and not a moment too soon exactly where the Dodgers are worried. They could use a great pick-me-up.
Greinke last started on April 11 and had surgery 2 or 3 days later, so an eight-week stay with the DL has changed into a five-week stay. A nice surprise if there possibly was one.
I thought about entertaining the idea that Greinke's return might what the Dodgers require them back toward the the top of NL West, but simply for about, oh, five a few seconds. The Dodgers have been a multitude in the month with May, and Greinke is actually one guy. A commencing pitcher, at that. He's only going for you to help so much.
In terms of how much Greinke can help that Dodgers, the only thing that's certain is that she won't be any worse compared to a various fill-ins the club has experienced to plug in during his absence.
In basic fact, Greinke racked up even more value in two starts than several Dodgers starters have just about all season. Consider his FanGraphs WAR compared for the WAR compiled by a number his comrades:
Despite the fact he's been gone the past month, the only Dodgers beginners with higher fWARs as compared to Greinke are Clayton Kershaw along with Hyun-Jin Ryu. That offers an idea how well Greinke was pitching before Quentin decided to give him a superior whooping.
It's a good question. I frankly don't remember a final time a pitcher suffered an automobile accident like Greinke's, and neither Google none Baseball Prospectus' transactions browser proved to be much help.
However, Bleacher Report injury guru Will Carroll took a glance at the situation last 4 weeks and wrote that Greinke need to have "no real trouble" in his return. His word is well enough for me.
And since Greinke has to be OK when he comes home from the DL, I'm able to take his rest-of-season projections at face value. From FanGraphs:
There's a disagreement here on may be starts and innings Greinke might rack up all of those other way, but the performance-based numbers are on the same.
And that's good, because those numbers are sturdy. They say that it must be win day when Grienke pitches to your Dodgers from here concerning out.
The Dodgers are several games under. 500 heading inside their Tuesday night matchup against the Washington Nationals. Greinke could go back, make 25 starts and also the Dodgers could win every one of them and break up even elsewhere, and you're only talking about an 18-game swing that is going to make them a 90-win organization. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, are on some sort of 98-win pace.
And of course, it's silly to reckon that the Dodgers will win every single one of Greinke's starts other way. To even have a shot at the 90-win level, they're going to have to win most his starts and do superior to break even in games started by everyone else.
That's the long method saying the Dodgers must actually become a wonderful team, which is something they haven't been shock as to for darn good motives. Greinke's injury was the start of an unfortunate trend that wrecked the Dodgers' beginning rotation, and the club's offense has left much to remain desired from the get-go.
General manager Ned Colletti could do his club a giant favor at the trade deadline by going out and getting a High cliff Lee or another stud, but there's not considerably anyone can do besides cross her or his fingers in regard to the offense. The Dodgers demand few things to griddle out.
One: Hanley Ramirez may need to get healthy and continue to be healthy. He can function as a guy who provides some much-needed thump on the left side of the Dodgers infield, which has combined to produce only five homers this coming year.
Two: Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier must start earning their revenue. Especially Kemp, whose power is missing all season in addition to hasn't really shown indications of returning. After putting up a 0. 83 ISO inside April, he has just a 0. 44 ISO within May (see FanGraphs).
Assuming he accumulates about where he left off, Greinke's return would help the Dodgers retrieve in the National Little league playoff picture. But they fell in a very deep hole while he or she was gone, and his return will simply answer one question due to many.
But look at it with this, Dodgers fans. ESPN. com has the team's chances of generating the playoffs at a good six percent. The only most viable option is up.
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